While there are many reasons to reduce the use of private vehicles (e.g., traffic fatalities, expense, accessibility, air quality), in this post I will focus on climate change. In the U.S., 27% of GHG emissions come from the transportation sector, and the largest contributor within that category is cars, trucks, minivans, and SUVs (EPA). If SUVs were a country, they would be the 7th largest GHG emitter (The Guardian).
Climate change is projected to kill many people through heat, drought, flooding, disease and famine. The WHO has called climate change "the biggest health threat facing humanity" and projects 250,000 additional deaths per year due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress from 2030 - 2050 due to climate change (WHO). Another study projected 83 million excess heat-related climate change deaths (or approx. 1 million per year) from 2020 - 2100 under baseline emissions (Bressler, 2021). The Bressler study projects more deaths than the WHO, which is likely because Bressler: (a) considers a longer time period and (b) climate change will likely become more deadly at the end of the century than at the beginning of the century.
To put these numbers in context, the table below compares the deaths from notable wars to the projected deaths from climate change. In terms of total deaths, far more will die in 2030 - 2050 due to climate change than from the Iraq and Vietnam Wars combined. In this century, climate change is likely to be more deadly than World Wars I and II combined! To be fair, most of the wars on the list are shorter than the timeframes over which these climate change deaths will take place, so the table also shows annualized death rate. Under this annualized measure, climate change is also very bad. Climate-change will kill far more per year than the Iraq and Vietnam wars combined and may kill one-fifth (or more) as many per year as during World War I. Every year.
It is important to note that there are uncertainties in the numbers above. In particular, the Bressler study likely undercounts the number of deaths by century's end because it, "...only represents temperature-related mortality; it leaves out potentially important climate-mortality pathways such as the effect of climate change on infectious disease, civil and interstate war, food supply, and flooding due to the limited availability of projections for these pathways..." It is possible to imagine a world of famine and climate refugees in which the annual number of deaths from climate change is similar to that of World War I.
People are already dying from climate change, and it is going to get worse. But these deaths are not inevitable. The Bressler study suggests that the 83 million deaths could be reduced to 9 million if GHG emissions are reduced immediately and are zero by 2050. Emissions need to be cut across all sectors, but since this blog is about transportation and urban planning, here are a few ways to reduce emissions from the transportation sector:
- Stop widening roads. Additional lanes lead to more total vehicle miles traveled due to induced traffic.
- Build more sidewalks and bike infrastructure.
- Increase funding for transit.
- Densify. Change zoning laws to be mixed use and allow for more housing. Reduce parking minimums and setback distances.
- Drive less. If driving is necessary, use smaller and/or electric vehicles.
These actions are not sacrifices. Instead, they improve the quality of life, enhance air quality, encourage active transport (i.e., exercise), and/or save money. Prioritizing all of the above could help this century avert the level of death the world witnessed during the world wars last century.
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